New Year’s Mailbag: 2025 UFC Sleeper Contender & Broadcast Rights Deal

Happy New Year everybody!

We’re diving right into 2025, and the first UFC event is just around the corner. But let’s be real, UFC Vegas 101 isn’t exactly setting hearts ablaze. So, for this year’s inaugural mailbag, I asked you all to send in your questions about anything under the sun, and boy, did you deliver! Let’s chat about what’s coming up this year, which divisions to watch, and yes, Conor McGregor.

Sleeper contender of 2025

“Happy new year Jed!

“If you had to pick one fighter in any division currently ranked outside the top 5 to become UFC champion in 2025, who would you pick?”

What a way to kick off the year! This question doesn’t have an obvious answer. Our champions predictions for 2025 don’t offer much clarity either—only two fighters fit the bill if we exclude champs moving up for a second title. One of them is Amanda Nunes! Sure, she’s not ranked now, but that doesn’t really hit the mark here.

Let’s break it down.

Bantamweight, featherweight, strawweight, women’s flyweight, and women’s bantamweight are out. Each has contenders already queued up in the top five. Middleweight and heavyweight? Not likely either—obvious contenders are waiting there, plus heavyweight has that whole Jon Jones question mark.

So that leaves light heavyweight, welterweight, lightweight, and flyweight as possibilities. Light heavyweight seems unlikely; if Alex Pereira defends against Magomed Ankalaev, it’s either rematch or move up. Lightweight? Similar story with Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan. Welterweight is a bit chaotic—many names but none likely to dethrone Belal Muhammad or Shavkat Rakhmonov. Flyweight it is then.

In 2024, both title challengers to Alexander Pantoja were way outside the top five (Steve Erceg wasn’t even top 10; Kai Asakura wasn’t in the UFC). Plus, Manel Kape is already close to a title shot. He fights Kai Asakura in March; a win guarantees him a shot at the belt. If he performs like last time, he’s a real threat to Pantoja.

So my pick? Manel Kape.

Optimism

“Given what went down in the sport this past year, what gives you cause for optimism in 2025?”

My resolution for this year? Be more optimistic about MMA! Great things are coming our way! The UFC might even pay Jon Jones to fight Tom Aspinall! Fighters will stop jumping weight classes right after winning titles! Everyone will be cool!

That said, last year was kinda rough for MMA fans. The UFC visited the APEX a whopping seventeen times—and each felt worse than before. It seemed more about taking from fans rather than giving back. Sure, there were highlights people will remember fondly over the general decline in quality—but still—a lot of meh moments.

(And no need to dive into the sad end of that first fighter lawsuit… it is what it is; hopefully fighters benefit once they get paid.)

Still hopeful that this year will bring better experiences weekly for fans. For starters—it’s contract negotiation time for UFC broadcast rights deals—and like any contract year across sports—that usually means stellar performances from those wanting a payday.

Plus—they’ve got reasons now not just stick around APEX anymore—every event last year broke venue gate records! Cynics might say “They didn’t add seats—just charged more,” but hey—it means more profit on road trips than hosting twenty events yearly inside their gym—that spells better cards for us fans!

Sure—it could all go south fast—and we continue down this mediocrity path—but why face it with doom like men walking gallows? Dare yourself into optimism!

Broadcast Rights

“We all expect Netflix to make a bid for the UFC which could mean a lot of great things.

“Suppose a deal doesn’t get done – does it open the door for another promotion like GFL/PFL and if so, does this move the needle whatsoever in being a viable competitor to the UFC?”

I’d be shocked if Netflix doesn’t snag at least part of UFC rights during negotiations—they clearly want into live sports—and options are limited now. They already have WWE so bundling combat sports under one roof seems logical.

But if not—does GFL get its chance? Nah—not really. Look at ONE Championship—they’re on Amazon Prime—but haven’t caught fire stateside yet. PFL landing on Netflix feels unlikely too—just because I can’t buy Porsche doesn’t mean I’ll settle buying Gremlin instead—I wanted Porsche—not just any car!

No one can compete against UFC—they hold monopoly ironclad grip over MMA scene—it won’t crumble easily through competition alone—the only hope lies within Ali Act adoption or winning fighter lawsuits seeking contract changes—but given Dana White ties soon-to-be President neither happening anytime soon.

The game won folks—it’s over.

Global Fight League

“Could GFL be announcing known fighters’ names just as media play? Meaning those older expansive fighters part GFL won’t drafted therefore GFL doesn’t need pay outrageous bags because fighters actually fight unknown cheap?”

I highly doubt it—my take: GFL announces fighters trying drum interest—but some numbers mentioned by fighters half accurate—it never gets off ground.

Conor McGregor

“Does Conor McGregor return UFC?”

I wrote before won’t rehash detail—but Conor McGregor legal troubles likely see him returning Octagon twenty-five—previously ego-driven comeback desire now tarnished image Hollywood rejection force rebuild where started—and UFC standards low welcome back eagerly.

Conor fights twenty-five maybe twice even.

Best Division Twenty-Five

“If could only watch one division year which would based talent matchups etc lightweight easy answer Islam wins few weeks probably only see belt defended once goes welterweight light heavy weight right lol).”

The answer always always lightweight best division deepest home eight exciting fighters world random fights between top forty guys absolute barnburners oh champion top pound-for-pound fighter sport lightweight correct answer.

But setting aside lightweight give love middleweight don think hundred eighty-five pounds best divisions very silly fun ton favorite weirdos compete middleweight look schedule already set quality bouts sure when down APEX fodder things won fun bantamweight featherweight weight classes don Dricus du Plessis Michel Pereira Reinier de Ridder give runner-up.

Thanks reading thanks everyone sent tweets (Xs?) burning questions related combat sports luck send tweets me @JedKMeshew I answer favorite ones matter topical insane good thanks again see y next week.