We’re less than a week away from one of the year’s most anticipated fights. These two giants of the sport put on a show the last time they clashed, so it’s highly likely we’ll get an even better second rendition. Poirier is still the favorite, with the majority of books giving him a slight edge over Gaethje’s due to form. But it goes much deeper than just that.
UFC 291 Odds: Poirier in the lead
There had been a lot of debate surrounding these two, so everyone was excited to see the first UFC odds drop for this event. The fluctuations weren’t as big as expected, with the lines crystalizing at -106 for Poirier and +120 for Gaethje. As we said previously, this makes perfect sense.
Dustin is 4-1 in his last five fights, as well as 8-2 in the last ten. The wind is in his sails, as evident by the multiple Performance of the Night/Fight of the Night awards he received. Dana has always viewed the lightweights as an underrated cash cow, so having another standout is certainly great news for him.
His opponent, on the other hand, has had it rough. He notably missed weight at UFC 274, in addition to losing the belt. To make things even worse, he was the only fighter eligible to hold the belt that night. Khabib notably demolished him with a triangle choke in 2020, which brought attention to his chances against strong grapplers. Fortunately, Dustin Poirier is not one of them.
Some say that Blachowitz vs Pereira is the main card, but we disagree. Poirier and Gathje have a rivalry going on, which is especially apparent in Justin’s willingness to get revenge. As both fighters are in the top 5 nowadays, it’s going to come down to small differences in their approach.
How Will the Rematch Go
First and foremost, both men are exceptional strikers. With a 5.51 SLpM and a 50% accuracy rate, Poirier is a devastating puncher. However, you’d be foolish to think Gaethje’s weaker in this department. His 70% accuracy and an SLpM of 7.73 puts him in a prime position to capitalize on quick windows of opportunity. And quite frankly, he’s going to need it against Poirier.
When it comes to avoiding blows, Poirier slightly outperforms Justin Gaethje, demonstrating a 54% strike evasion rate, whereas Gaethje holds a commendable 53% rate. Both fighters showcase good defensive capabilities. However, Poirier has a marginally superior ability to evade strikes.
In terms of grappling, Poirier has shown more diversity in his fighting style compared to Gaethje. He manages 1.39 takedowns every 15 minutes, having a takedown accuracy of 36%. Not to mention, Poirier’s takedown defense rate stands at 63%, underlining his capability to thwart opponents’ attempts to bring him down. In addition, Poirier manages to average 1.2 submissions every 15 minutes, further emphasizing his grappling prowess.
Contrastingly, Gaethje tends to lean more towards his striking skills and records a lower average of 0.13 takedowns per 15 minutes, possessing a 25% takedown accuracy. However, Gaethje’s takedown defense rate of 75% is quite remarkable, illustrating his knack for keeping the fight active and resisting takedowns.
Scrutinizing their latest bouts could shed more light on their present condition. Poirier’s previous bout resulted in a victory over Michael Chandler, in which he exhibited his stamina and striking abilities, ultimately leading to a knockout win. Similarly, Gaethje claimed a victory in his last fight against Rafael Fiziev, showcasing his punching power and perseverance. So, at the end of the day, anything can happen, but the excitement will certainly be there.