UFC Vegas 95 concluded with little fanfare as attention shifts to the highly anticipated UFC 305 featuring Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya, though the excitement for this fight has waned due to scheduling decisions and a lack of sustained promotion.
UFC Vegas 95 is in the books and … no one cares. Serghei Spivac got his revenge against Marcin Tybura and the world kept right on spinning. But we are now locked into UFC 305, which has one of my most anticipated fights of the year: Dricus du Plessis vs. Israel Adesanya for the middleweight title.
We’ve already discussed that fight and the event specifically this week, so let’s instead delve into some broader questions about UFC 305, the promotion in general, and how this year is going.
UFC 305 main event
For a fight that once had so much heat and anticipation after Izzy beat Pereira back at 287, why do you think DDP vs. Izzy seems to be lacking any sort of buzz less than a week out from 305?
— Ari Gilberg (@arigilberg)
For a fight that once had so much heat and anticipation after Izzy beat Pereira back at 287, why do you think DDP vs. Izzy seems to be lacking any sort of buzz less than a week out from 305?
This is a great question because it is absolutely spot on and I think there are two reasons for it.
The first is that this is just the world we live in now. With very, very few exceptions, UFC is a weekly content business.
The build for fights lasts only as long as fight week itself and then it’s on to the next one, week after week, all year round. Because of this, the fandom just gets caught up in the monotony of repetitive scheduling until it’s, “Oh, I didn’t realize UFC 305 was this weekend. OK.” Unless it’s something like UFC 300, the promotion straight up doesn’t promote events anymore for longer than a week. And so you can forget about them until they are at hand.
There is of course an easy solve for this, but UFC will never do it: Have a gap week before every pay-per-view event.
At this point PPVs are the only events UFC tries on (because you have to try to get people to pay $80) and so they could pretty easily leave the weekend before every PPV open. That would then afford them two weeks of promotion for the big event, letting it build the excitement up. But that’s not going to happen.
The other reason this particular fight feels underwhelming is because UFC screwed up. After Adesanya beat Pereira, this was the fight.
There was serious animosity between these two, a real story to tell, and nothing standing in the way. Except some people thought du Plessis needed another win (they were dumb, it would have been fine, next man up is fine) and UFC had a schedule to keep so instead du Plessis fought Robert Whittaker.
That was a risky choice as Whittaker could have beaten DDP and derailed all of this, but instead he won, and suddenly this fight was undeniable.
There was no fight I wanted to see more in MMA. But UFC again had a schedule to keep, and so when DDP couldn’t turn around on a few weeks to fight for the belt, in came Sean Strickland.
Had Adesanya beaten Strickland, this fight would have been massive, but that’s not what happened. Strickland won, throwing everything into the shuffler for a bit.
Eventually we got here and the fight remains great. But it’s past its ideal time and a lot of stuff has happened since to take the sheen off of it, including both du Plessis and Adesanya seemingly less interested in diving into the fraught waters of the “true African” debate, at least for now.
UFC 305, the card
Jed, longtime fan here. What was your FART score for Vegas 95, and what is the Meshewlin Star Rating for 305?
— Mike Heck (@MikeHeck_JR)
Jed, longtime fan here. What was your FART score for Vegas 95, and what is the Meshewlin Star Rating for 305?
For those new here, I have two scoring systems in place for judging MMA cards. The first is the F.A.R.T. System — Fights Above Replacement Tussles — and the second is the Meshewlin Stars.
APEX cards get the latter; PPVs get the former; Fight Nights get one or the other depending on quality. Both are fairly simple.
The F.A.R.T. System scores each event based on how many high-quality fights are on the card—designed like WAR in baseball.
Any ranked fighter on the card is worth .5 (either in the UFC rankings or MMA Fighting Global Rankings), plus other fights or fighters I may find especially compelling above and beyond any random replacement matchup that fills APEX events.
Meshewlin Stars are handed out similarly to Michelin Stars: Each star basically represents how willing someone should be to travel to attend.
One star means it’s worth attending if you live locally.
Two stars suggest taking a short trip.
Three stars? An exceptional card worth a special trip.
For reference: UFC300 got three stars; UFC301 got none.
Now onto your question: This might be controversial but… UFC Vegas95 was better (on paper) than folks acknowledged.
Sure,the card was brutal,but our system isn’t retroactive.
You get scored based on bookings.
Six ranked fighters competed last Saturday giving it three F.A.R.T.s—not lowest of year,and sadly not far from average APEX events these days.
As for UFC305,it’s One Star.
If I were in Perth,I’d go.Main event merits that alone.
But if—knock wood—main event falters,this card lacks depth.Kai Kara-France vs Steve Erceg? Good fight,but weak co-main.Rest follows suit.Undercard? Mid.Main does heavy lifting.Sorry Adelaide folks,four-hour flight ain’t worth it.
Can you imagine a scenario where next broadcast deal with UFC reduces number of contractually obligated events like #UFCVegas95 ? Or do you think we’re stuck with ~42 / year going forward ?— Jay Pettry(@jaypettry) August11 ,2024
< blockquote >< pid = "7XDTIz" > Can you imagine a scenario where next broadcast deal with UFC reduces number of contractually obligated events like UFC Vegas95 ? Or do you think we’re stuck with ~42 / year going forward ?
< pid = "3qaRCF" > If I had to guess,I’d say it’s more likely we end up with more events in future than just standard42 .
< pid = "PO5sR1" > I’ve been thinking about this lot,and I’ve settled on two possible outcomes moving forward as UFC’s broadcast rights deal comes up for auction soon.First(and I think most likely)is that UFC does not re-sign single broadcast deal,but instead inks multiple.Televised sports rights is massive business,and from all reporting,UFC is hot commodity.In end,I think we’re looking split of events between multiple parties,because that’s likely how UFC can maximize its profit.
< pid = "tgNP8d" > Now,could that mean ESPN keeps20 events,and say Netflix(who I strongly suspect will be involved)gets20 ? Sure.But I think more likely outcome is UFC commits offering more events split among multiple partners probably upping it50 or so fight cards year perhaps with fewer fights on each card.
< pid = "s3uJ8L" > The other outcome(and this is more wish-casting than honest belief)is that one broadcast partner comes over top with massive offer for next several years which includes accepting fewer events.
< pid = "woH69r" > Because here’s thing about APEX,I cannot imagine those shows are profitable on their own.They barely sell tickets after all.Instead APEX events are profitable in aggregate as part of bundle UFC owes ESPN for its massive payout each year.APEX events are two-way contractual obligations,giving ESPN what they have to and keeping up their end with huge number of fighters they have sign as part of having big enough roster for all their events.That’s why every APEX card is dirt—it’s just mishmash of people they owe fights,and by stocking event with people making minimum contracts,UFC can depress its overhead because that’s just basic business.
< pid = "CsV3Sp" > But if you go Dana White offer him more money for less events well that’s deal anyone would take.UFC could then reduce overhead even more take culling scythe roster continue rake money hand over fist while also restoring product integrity with fan base.
< pid = "9keop2" > But again,this probably won’t happen.It’s like NFL inexorable march toward20 – game season that no one but owners seems want: Unfettered greed always wins.
We’ve had highs of UFC300and lows of Tybura v Spivac2 what are we grading year2024 so far for UFC ?— Chase Colaw(@coca_colaw) August12 ,2024
< blockquote >< pid = "no3Agu" > We’ve had highs of UFC300and lows of Tybura v Spivac2 what are we grading year2024 so far for UFC ?
< pid = "vmGSeY" > Another good question with boring answer:2024in UFC has been good.
< pid = "vxcf5Y" > It is undeniably true that week in week out,UFC putting out worst product it has in several years.As White famously likes say about Conor McGregor he doesn’t need fight so why would he ? UFC doesn’t need try anymore so why would it ? They won sport so now they can simply fulfill their obligations rake money at cost consumer quality.This literally why monopolies bad unless you’re monopoly.
< pid = "yjgGxi" > That being said,it doesn’t matter slightest this year.Have there been more weekends with bad meh cards than good ones ? Probably.But are we going remember those few years ? Not chance.Nostalgia powerful thing people uniquely bad remembering boring underwhelming.People mostly remember all highs only absolute worst moments this year already given us number memorable highs.
< pid = "WuSKlJ" > UFC300was billed best event ever assembled lived up hype.UFC299was also exceptional.UFC303was super weird awesome gave birth Alex Pereira heavyweight conversation.UFC306(orUFC Noche2 whatever)is very likely going cool as(Mike)Heck.UFC308is Ilia Topuria vs.Max Holloway.And there’s still chance Conor McGregor return(however remote).
< pid = "1PjU5Y" > When we look back this year,we won’t remember week after week at APEX with middling heavyweight main events,we will remember high-water marks.And this year tide has been pretty damn high(when it’s not so devastatingly low).